In formulating the nation's monetary policy, the Federal Reserve considers a number of factors, including the economic and financial indicators which follow, as well as the anecdotal reports compiled in the Beige Book.
Definition: The total value of goods and services produced within the borders of the United States, regardless of who owns the assets or the nationality of the labor used in producing that output. (In contrast, Gross National Product (GNP) measures the output of the citizens of the US and the income from assets owned by US entities, regardless of where located.) The growth of output is measured in real terms, meaning increases in output due to inflation have been removed. Source: US Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis Frequency: Quarterly Availability: Data are typically released during the final week of the month. The first or advance estimate is released during the final week of the month immediately following the end of a calendar quarter. Reason: The Federal Reserve's primary goal is sustained growth of the economy with full employment and stable prices. Real GDP is the most comprehensive measure of the performance of the U.S. economy. By monitoring trends in the overall growth rate as well as the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation, policy makers are able to assess whether the current stance of monetary policy is consistent with that primary goal.
Definition: An index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical urban consumer. The index is intended to measure pure price change only; attempts are made to remove changes in price resulting from changes in quality. Source: U.S. Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics Frequency: Monthly Availability: Generally available the second week of the month immediately following the month for which data is being released; always released after the Producer Price Index. Reason: The rate of change of the CPI is one of the key measures of inflation for the U.S. economy. Acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy may be appropriate.
Definition: An estimate of the number of payroll jobs at all nonfarm business establishments and government agencies. Information is also provided on the average number of hours worked per week and average hourly and weekly earnings. Source: U.S. Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics Frequency: Monthly Availability: Usually the first Friday of the month for the immediately preceding month; occasionally released on the second Friday. Reason: Growth of employment and hours worked provide important information about the current and likely future pace of overall economic growth. Trends in average hourly earnings provide information about supply and demand conditions in labor markets, which may provide signals about the overall level of resource utilization in the economy.
Definition: An estimate of the number of housing units on which construction was started. Starting construction is defined as excavation for the footings or foundation, or the first shovel of dirt to break ground. (In response to natural disasters such as Hurricane Andrew in August of 1992, that definition has been expanded to a housing unit built on an existing foundation after the previous structure had been completely destroyed.) Housing starts are divided into single-family and multifamily(2+) units. Beginning construction on a 100 unit apartment building, for example, is counted as 100 starts. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census Frequency: Monthly Availability: Around 15th of the month for the immediately preceding month Reason: Housing is perhaps the most interest-rate sensitive sector of the economy. It often experiences large swings in activity in response to changes in the level of long-term interest rates such as those on mortgages. While residential investment represents just four percent of the level of GDP, due to its volatility it frequently represents a much higher proportion of changes in GDP over relatively short periods of time. Policy makers monitor the housing sector very carefully for clues about the near-term performance of the economy and for the effects of changes in financial conditions.
Definition: An index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Frequency: Monthly Availability: Preliminary estimate released around the middle of the month for the immediately preceding month. Reason: While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.
Definition: An estimate of the total sales of goods by all retail establishments in the U.S. (Sales of services are not included.) Data are presented in nominal, or current, dollars, meaning they are not adjusted for inflation. However, the data are adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences between the months of the year. Sales are categorized by type of establishment, not by type of good. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Frequency: Monthly Availability: Advance estimate released during the second week of the month for the immediately preceding month. Reason: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) represent roughly two-thirds of GDP. By monitoring retail sales, policy makers are able to make an assessment of the likely growth of PCE for the current and future quarters.
Business Sales and Inventories View chart 1 page / 20 kb
Definition: Total current-dollar sales and inventories for the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sectors of the economy. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census Frequency: Monthly Availability: About six weeks from the end of the month; for example, data for June are reported in mid August. Reason: This release is the primary source of data on inventories. The rate of inventory accumulation plays a key role in determining the current pace of economic growth and often provides useful clues about the future pace of growth as well. For example, if inventories are accumulating at a rapid pace, such that inventory sales ratios are rising, it may portend a slowing of growth in the near future as firms cut production to bring inventories back into line with sales. Vice versa, if inventories are growing slowly or actually falling, it may signal a future pickup in production.
Advance Durable Goods Shipments, New Orders and Unfilled Orders View Chart 1 page / 20 kb
Definition: Data on shipments, new orders, and unfilled orders, expressed in current dollars, for things such as primary metals, fabricated metals, electric generating equipment, nonelectrical machinery, information processing equipment, and transportation equipment, including civilian and military aircraft and ships, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks, and automobiles. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of the Census Frequency: Monthly Availability: Fourth week of the month for the immediately preceding month. Reason: The data in this report provide information on the strength of demand, from both domestic and foreign sources, for U.S. manufactured durable goods. Rising orders, shipments, and unfilled orders suggest demand is strengthening, which will likely result in increasing production and employment, while falling orders, shipments, and unfilled orders suggest the opposite. Data in this release also provides information on the current and likely future pace of business investment in new equipment.
Definition: Total unit sales and leases of domestic and imported new automobiles and light-weight trucks (up to 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight). Includes sales and leases to both consumers and businesses. Source: Not-seasonally-adjusted sales data: Ward's Automotive Reports and the American Automobile Manufacturers Association. Seasonal adjustment factors: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Frequency: First, second, and third 10 days of each month and monthly Availability: Third business day after the relevant selling period. Reason: While a relatively small component of the overall economy, changes in light-weight vehicle sector often account for a large part of quarter-to-quarter changes in the rate of growth of GDP.
Yield on 10-year Treasury Bond View chart 1 page / 10 kb
Definition: The current market interest rate or yield on U.S. Treasury bonds maturing 10 years in the future. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Frequency: Daily Availability: Daily data available in most major newspapers; daily, weekly, and monthly data are reported in the H.15 report which is released each Monday by the FED. Reason: Movements in long-term interest rates such as the 10-year Treasury rate provide information about likely future changes in the level of activity in the interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. For example, mortgage interest rates often move in tandem with the 10-year Treasury rate, and changes in mortgage rates often precede changes in the level of activity in housing markets.
Definition: One of several indices designed to measure changes in price of a broad array of stocks. Source: Compiled by Standard & Poors. Available in most major newspapers and several on-line market information sources. Frequency: Daily through newspapers; instantaneous through on line information sources. Reason: The stock market is one measure of the current value of the nation's stock of capital and is often viewed as a barometer of business and consumer confidence regarding the future. A high and/or rising stock market may signal robust growth of business investment and consumer spending in the near future while a low and/or falling stock market may signal sluggish spending. For this reason, the S&P 500 is one component of the Index of Leading Indicators.
Definition: One measure of the nation's supply of money, defined as M1 (currency in circulation, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits) plus noninstitutional money market funds and small time and savings deposits. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Frequency: Weekly and monthly. Availability: H.6 report. Weekly data released each Thursday afternoon after 4:30 p.m. Monthly data released in either the second or third week of the month. Reason: While the strength of the relationship has weakened over time, many people believe there is a link between growth of the supply of money and growth of nominal GDP.
Section 501(c)(3) is just one of the tax law provisions granting exemption from the federal income tax to non-profit organizations. This exemption does not cover other federal taxes such as employment taxes.
501(c)(3) exemptions apply to corporations, and any community chest, fund, or foundation, organized and operated exclusively for religious, charitable, scientific, testing for public safety, literary, or educational purposes, or to foster national or international amateur sports competition, or for the prevention of cruelty to children or animals.
Another provision, 26 U.S.C.§ 170, provides a deduction, for federal income tax purposes, for some donors who make charitable contributions to 501(c)(3) organizations. Testing for public safety is described under 509(a)(4) of the code which makes the organization a public charity and not a private foundation, and contributions to 509(a)(4) organizations are not deductible to the donor for federal income, estate, or gift tax purposes.
501(c)(3) status for charities and the related section 170 deduction for donors are important to many charitable groups. Some individuals and groups (and virtually all foundations) will not give to a charity if it does not have 501(c)(3) status. Therefore, loss of this status can be harmful to a charity's existence.
Some organizations automatically acquire 501(c)(3) status upon filing of proper organic documents (e.g., articles of incorporation as a church), at least until annual income exceeds a statutory threshold. Others will not receive 501(c)(3) status until they file an application and supporting documentation to the IRS and have a certification letter issued. The IRS will examine the application and may request further financial and organization information prior to granting the 501(c)(3) status. To cover donations made before the letter is issued, the regulations require prompt filing of the application after organization, or after an existing organization satisfies the criteria for 501(c)(3), or after exceeding the income threshold. Contrarily, any organization may instantaneously lose its status for tax-deductible donations if it violates the pertinent regulations.
Organizations with this classification are prohibited from lobbying to influence elections and legislation. [1] However, these organizations are permitted to educate individuals about issues, or fund research that supports their political position without overtly advocating for a position on a specific bill. Often, 501(c)(4) organizations may create a 501(c)(3) that operates solely for "educational" purposes. The League of Women Voters advocates positions on issues as a 501(c)(4) and uses its 501(c)(3) arm to provide nonpartisan voter information. Similarly, think tanks such as the Cato Institute, Center for American Progress, and Heritage Foundation produce policy reports and recommendations on proposals that are not specific legislation. The organization's partisans then use 501(c)(4) organizations or political action committees to lobby for their ideas once they become bills.
501(c)(4) exemptions are given to civic leagues or organizations not organized for profit but operated exclusively for the promotion of social welfare, or local associations of employees, the membership of which is limited to the employees of a designated person or persons in a particular municipality, and the net earnings of which are devoted exclusively to charitable, educational, or recreational purposes.
The exemption does not apply "unless no part of the net earnings of such entity inures to the benefit of any private shareholder or individual." See 26 U.S.C.§ 501(c)(4)(B).
Deductibility of donations to 501(c)(4) organizations:
Unlike donations to the more prevalent 501(c)(3) non-profit organizations, donations to a section 501(c)(4) organization are not deductible by the donor under section 170 of the code unless the recipient organization is a volunteer fire department as described in revenue ruling 80-77 or veteran organizations with at least 90% of its membership consisting of war veterans as described in revenue ruling 84-140.
The 501(c)(6) is specifically reserved to Chamber of Commerce organizations, real estate boards, trade boards, professional football leagues (e.g., the NFL), and other types of business leagues. They are characterized by a common business interest, which the organization typically promotes. Organizations under this category are exempt from most federal income taxes. Donations to a 501(c)(6) are not tax deductible as charitable contributions, as is the case in the 501(c)(4) category.
501(c)(6) organizations may engage in limited political activities that inform, educate, and promote their given interest. They may not engage in direct expenditures advocating a vote for a political candidate or cause. Donations to 501(c)(6) organizations are not required to be disclosed.
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